The short answer (prices captured 5 November 2026)
- We have priced the same fixed basket of 74 Amazon UK products four times since 6 September. Black Friday is 27 November.
- On 5 November, 36 of the 72 products we could price on all four dates were above the cheapest we have ever recorded them. The median gap is 18.9 per cent.
- Those 36 need a discount of about 19 per cent on the day just to match a price we already saw this autumn.
- Across the whole basket the median change from 6 September to 5 November is 0.0 per cent. Most prices have not moved. The ones that have, moved with the season: heaters up 23.7 per cent, LED face masks down 18.2 per cent.
- The rule that decides what counts as a real deal was written down on 30 September 2026, before any of this data existed. It is published below and will not be changed.
Every November the same argument happens. A retailer says a thing is reduced. Somebody says it was cheaper in September. Neither side has a record, so the argument goes nowhere.
This page is the record. On 6 September 2026 we fixed a basket of 74 products across thirteen categories, every one of them something Look Into recommends on a buying guide, and we have been pricing the same 74 ever since. The basket has not changed and will not change. If a product is delisted we keep the row and mark it, rather than quietly dropping it and improving our own numbers.
Four captures are in: 6 September, 30 September, 18 October and 5 November 2026. The fifth is Black Friday itself, 27 November. This page publishes everything we hold before the sale, so that nothing on it can be adjusted afterwards to make a verdict look better.
Prices and specs last checked by Look Into on 5 November 2026 · next check 27 November 2026 · how we picked
The rule, fixed on 30 September
This was written into our method file on 30 September 2026, before Amazon's October event and seven weeks before Black Friday. It is reproduced here word for word.
A product counts as a real deal only if its event-day price is below the lowest price in our own record for that ASIN across every capture before the event. It counts as not actually cheaper if the event-day price is equal to or above that lowest earlier price.
Separately, a claim is checked: where the listing states a was, RRP or list figure, we report whether our record ever saw the product at that figure in the capture window. We report it; we do not call the retailer dishonest, because Amazon's reference prices can come from periods and sellers our record does not cover.
Items with no price on the day, or delisted, are reported as such and excluded from percentages. Percentages are always given with the count, never alone.
The point of publishing a rule in advance is that it removes our own freedom to choose a flattering answer later. If Black Friday turns out to be full of genuine cuts, this page will say so.
Where the basket stands on 5 November
Of the 74 products, 72 returned a buy-box price on all four dates. The two that did not are reported below rather than hidden. Against those 72:
- 36 of 72 are priced above the cheapest figure in our own record. The median gap is 18.9 per cent.
- 36 of 72 are at or below the cheapest figure we have recorded.
- From 6 September to 5 November: 25 went up, 29 went down, 18 did not move. The median change across all 72 is 0.0 per cent.
That last figure is the one worth sitting with. Two months of a heating-season run-up, and the typical product in this basket costs exactly what it cost in September. The movement is real but it is not general, and it is not in one direction.
The ten furthest above their own floor
| Category | ASIN | Lowest we recorded | 5 Nov 2026 | Above its floor by |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LED face masks | B0F9FPTXFR | £144.49 | £349.99 | 142.2% |
| Electric heaters | B0D73CJS2M | £37.33 | £59.99 | 60.7% |
| Slow cookers | B0FGDLHS1S | £27.90 | £39.99 | 43.3% |
| Heated airers | B0G4X97GXQ | £38.99 | £53.99 | 38.5% |
| Home security | B0929TGRZF | £209.99 | £289.99 | 38.1% |
| Electric heaters | B07V3FQ69Y | £18.89 | £25.99 | 37.6% |
| Electric heaters | B008XF8HBS | £11.44 | £14.99 | 31.0% |
| Air fryers | B0CTS3W442 | £38.25 | £49.99 | 30.7% |
| Electric blankets | B0CJYCZ148 | £22.99 | £29.99 | 30.4% |
| Insulated bottles | B0F2SJ3LRC | £10.99 | £14.29 | 30.0% |
By category, 6 September to 5 November
| Category | Products | Median change |
|---|---|---|
| Electric heaters | 7 | +23.7% |
| Slow cookers | 6 | +7.6% |
| Heated airers | 3 | +6.2% |
| Electric blankets | 7 | 0.0% |
| Hot water bottles | 5 | 0.0% |
| Carbon monoxide alarms | 6 | 0.0% |
| Dehumidifiers | 4 | 0.0% |
| Insulated bottles | 5 | 0.0% |
| Sunscreen | 6 | -3.0% |
| IPL devices | 6 | -6.0% |
| Home security | 6 | -9.3% |
| Air fryers | 6 | -13.1% |
| LED face masks | 5 | -18.2% |
The pattern is seasonal rather than random. The things you want in November cost more in November. Heaters, slow cookers and heated airers are up; sunscreen, IPL devices, air fryers and LED face masks are down. A sale that arrives on 27 November arrives after the heating-season products have already been repriced upward, and the discount will be measured from that higher number unless you know what it used to be.
One claim, checked by hand
Our weekly captures deliberately do not record reference prices, because the first attempt to scrape them produced figures that were plainly wrong, including a struck-through price lower than the current one. A reference price only enters our record when it has been read by eye from the listing and the screenshot saved. One claim on the basket met that bar on 5 November 2026.
The Tower 230W Heated Winged Clothes Airer, ASIN B0G4X97GXQ, was showing a -10% badge against a struck-through RRP of £59.99, with a buy-box price of £53.99.
Our record for that ASIN reads £38.99 on 6 September, £42.99 on 30 September, £42.99 on 18 October and £53.99 on 5 November. We also hold a reading of £59.99 on 30 August 2026, taken for a different piece of work before this basket was fixed.
So the RRP figure is not the problem. We did see this airer at £59.99, on 30 August. The problem is the word discount. The advertised price of £53.99 is 38.5 per cent above the £38.99 we recorded a week after that, and higher than every other figure in our record. Someone buying it today on the strength of the badge is paying more than they would have paid on any date we have priced it, and the badge is comparing against the one week in our record when it was dearest.
We are reporting what our record holds, not making an allegation. Amazon's reference prices draw on periods and sellers our four captures do not cover.
What the rules say about a reference price
The Competition and Markets Authority published a set of discount and reference pricing principles on 1 August 2024. They are written for online mattress sellers rather than retailers in general, and the CMA states that they do not create new law, so they are context here rather than a standard anyone on this page is bound by.
What they set out is the reasoning. A was-price should be one the trader has actually used, on the same website, immediately before the discount, for long enough and in enough volume to be real. The CMA's wording is that if a trader cannot be sure a reference price is genuine, it should not be used in advertising. The same document lists a comparison against a recommended retail price as a form of reference pricing, which is why an RRP badge is worth the same scrutiny as a was-price.
Separately, the CMA's guidance on unfair commercial practices under the Digital Markets, Competition and Consumers Act 2024 was first published on 4 April 2025 and updated on 18 November 2025 to reflect its price transparency guidance.
The gaps, stated
A price series is only worth something if its holes are visible. Ours has several.
- Captures were meant to be weekly. There are four in two months. No capture exists for 13, 20 or 27 September, 4, 11 or 25 October, or 1 November 2026. The three September misses happened because the scheduled job kept starting without access to the machine that holds the method file. The October and November gaps are simply runs that did not happen; the 18 October one did.
- No capture was taken during Amazon's Prime Big Deal Days on 6 and 7 October 2026. That event is therefore outside this record entirely, and nothing on this page describes it.
- Missed dates are never filled in afterwards. An estimated price in a file that looks authoritative is worse than a gap.
- B0H4ZJRWC6, a hot water bottle, has returned no buy-box price since 30 September, and by 18 October the listing itself was gone. The row is kept and marked rather than deleted, and it is excluded from every count.
- B0DQSK8Y52, an LED face mask, returned no buy-box price on 5 November and is excluded from every count. It was £99.99 on 6 September and £126.00 on the two middle captures.
- A buy box can rotate between sellers and between new and resale stock. We record the buy-box price, which is what a buyer is offered, not a single seller's price over time.
What happens on 27 November
The same 74 products get priced again on Black Friday itself, and every discount badge on them gets photographed. Then the rule above is applied in code: a price below everything in this record is a real cut, and a price at or above it is not, whatever the badge says. The result is published here with the counts, and this page's figures will still be sitting above it, unchanged.
After that, four weeks of further captures answer the question nobody asks in December: did the real cuts stay, or did the price come back?
Download the data
All 74 rows, four capture dates, the lowest figure we hold for each product and how far above it the 5 November price sits. Free to use with a link back.
black-friday-price-claims-audit-data-2026-11-05.csv
Questions people ask
Are Black Friday discounts real?
Some are. On our basket, as it stands on 5 November, half the products would need a cut of about 19 per cent on the day simply to get back to a price we already recorded this autumn. We will publish the answer for 27 November against the rule we fixed in September rather than guess at it now.
Do prices go up before Black Friday?
Some do, and in this basket the ones that do are seasonal. Electric heaters are up 23.7 per cent since 6 September and slow cookers 7.6 per cent. But the median across all 72 products is 0.0 per cent, so a blanket claim that everything is inflated before the sale is not what our record shows.
How do I check a discount myself?
Write down today's price for the specific thing you want, with the date, and compare on the day. That is the entire method on this page, applied to one product instead of 74. A badge that compares against an RRP tells you what the seller would like the product to be worth, not what it has been selling for.
Why does this page have no shopping links?
Because a page that audits discount claims should not earn a commission on the products it is auditing. Look Into is an Amazon Associate elsewhere on this site. Not here.
Can I quote these figures?
Yes, with a link to this page. The CSV above holds every number, and the method is published so the working can be checked.
Other Look Into indexes
Each of these is built the same way: a fixed basket or a fixed set of claims, captured on a stated date, with the method published and the raw data on the page.
- UK Bottle Insulation Claims Audit 2026, what five brands claim, and which conditions they state.
- UK Home Security Value Index 2026, what it costs to secure the doors burglars actually use.
- UK Student Kit Index 2026, a fixed 20-item basket priced against the maintenance loan.
- UK At-Home Beauty Device Cost Index 2026, IPL devices and LED masks costed per session.
- UK Home Alarm Monitoring Cost 2026, what monitoring costs a month and which systems get a police response.
If you are shopping the sale itself, our Black Friday 2026 UK hub carries the dates, the rules retailers have to follow and a running list of prices we are recording.
Sources
- Look Into price capture basket, 74 ASINs fixed 6 September 2026. Captures of 6 September, 30 September, 18 October and 5 November 2026, each read from amazon.co.uk product pages on the date shown. Method published in full on this page and in our capture method file.
- Amazon.co.uk listing for ASIN B0G4X97GXQ, discount badge and RRP read and screenshotted 5 November 2026
- Amazon.co.uk listing for ASIN B0F9FPTXFR, buy-box price read and screenshotted 5 November 2026
- Competition and Markets Authority, Discount and reference pricing principles: selling mattresses online, 1 August 2024, read 5 November 2026
- Competition and Markets Authority, Unfair commercial practices (CMA207), first published 4 April 2025, updated 18 November 2025, read 5 November 2026
Look Into has not handled any of these products: every figure here is a price read from a listing on the date shown. Prices are buy-box prices and change constantly. This page carries no affiliate links. Published 5 November 2026 and due for its next entry on 27 November 2026.