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This is a holding page for the January 2027 energy price cap, which Ofgem announces on Wednesday 25 November 2026. Until then every January figure is a forecast. The cap running now is £1,723 a year for a typical dual-fuel household paying by direct debit. Public forecasts for January run from £1,999.28 to £2,183, a rise of between 16% and 27%.
- Ofgem announces the 1 January to 31 March 2027 cap on 25 November 2026.
- The current cap, 1 October to 31 December 2026, is £1,723 a year for a typical household.
- Forecasts for January run from £1,999.28 (Cornwall Insight) to £2,183 (E.ON Next).
- That would be a rise of between 16% and 27%.
The energy price cap sets the most suppliers can charge for each unit of gas and electricity. It changes every three months. The next change is in January 2027, and forecasts suggest a rise of 16% to 27%, though the real figure is not known until 25 November.
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Holding page. Ofgem announces the 1 January to 31 March 2027 price cap on Wednesday 25 November 2026. Until then, every January figure on this page is a forecast, labelled as one. We will replace them with Ofgem's confirmed rates on the day. Last checked 30 October 2026.
The cap running now, 1 October to 31 December 2026, is £1,723 a year for a typical dual-fuel household paying by direct debit. Public forecasts for January now run from £1,999.28 (Cornwall Insight, on wholesale prices to 28 September) to £2,183 (E.ON Next, updated 26 October), a rise of between 16% and 27%. See every forecast, and who was closest last time. Cornwall Insight describes its own figure as the largest rise since January 2023. Below are the forecast rates, what they would mean per hour for a heater, a blanket or a unit of gas heat, and what to check before 1 January.
Prices and specs last checked by Look Into on 30 October 2026 · next check 25 November 2026 · how we picked
The short version
- Ofgem announces the January to March 2027 cap on 25 November 2026. It takes effect on 1 January 2027.
- Now: £1,723 a year. Electricity 26.32p per kWh plus 54.83p a day; gas 7.97p per kWh plus 29.68p a day (GB average, direct debit).
- Forecast (Cornwall Insight, published 30 September 2026, page updated 14 October 2026): £1,999.28 a year. Electricity 30.28p per kWh plus about 55p a day; gas 9.76p per kWh plus about 31p a day.
- On those forecast rates, the electricity unit rate rises about 15% and the gas unit rate about 22%. Standing charges barely move.
- Electricity carries no VAT until 31 March 2027. Ofgem confirmed this for the October cap, so it applies to the January quarter as well.
- The cap limits unit rates and standing charges, not your total bill. Households on a fixed tariff see no change until the fix ends.
Current rates against the January forecast
| GB average, direct debit | 1 Oct to 31 Dec 2026 (confirmed) | 1 Jan to 31 Mar 2027 (forecast) |
|---|---|---|
| Electricity unit rate | 26.32p/kWh | 30.28p/kWh |
| Electricity standing charge | 54.83p/day | about 55p/day |
| Gas unit rate | 7.97p/kWh | 9.76p/kWh |
| Gas standing charge | 29.68p/day | about 31p/day |
| Typical annual bill | £1,723 | £1,999.28 |
The forecast is reproducible. Ofgem's typical household uses 2,500 kWh of electricity and 9,500 kWh of gas a year. At the forecast rates that comes to £757.00 of electricity units, £927.20 of gas units and about £313.90 of standing charges: £1,998.10, within £1.20 of Cornwall Insight's £1,999.28. The gap comes from the rounded standing charges.
What the forecast would mean per hour
| Running cost | Now (26.32p, 7.97p) | January forecast (30.28p, 9.76p) |
|---|---|---|
| Anything drawing 1kW, for an hour | 26.3p | 30.3p |
| 2kW fan heater, an hour on full | 52.6p | 60.6p |
| 70W electric under-blanket, an hour on full | 1.8p | 2.1p |
| A kWh of heat from a 90% efficient gas boiler | 8.9p | 10.8p |
| Heat pump SCOP needed to match that gas boiler | about 3.0 | about 2.8 |
| Standing charges for a year, dual fuel | £308.46 | about £313.90 |
Gas rises faster than electricity in the forecast. That lowers the efficiency a heat pump needs to beat a gas boiler on running cost, from about 3.0 to about 2.8. Our heat pump vs gas boiler comparison and the appliance running cost calculator are rebuilt when the new cap takes effect.
January forecasts compared, and who was closest in October
Four forecasters published a final figure for the October 2026 cap in the week before Ofgem announced it on 26 August. All four landed within £7 of the £1,723 Ofgem set.
| Forecaster | Final October forecast | Published | Gap to the £1,723 Ofgem set |
|---|---|---|---|
| EDF | £1,721 | By 19 August 2026 | £2 under |
| E.ON Next | £1,725 | By 19 August 2026 | £2 over |
| Cornwall Insight | £1,729.31 | 19 August 2026 | £6.31 over |
| British Gas | £1,730 | By 19 August 2026 | £7 over |
So last quarter's accuracy can't separate them. In the final week every forecaster is working from almost the same wholesale prices Ofgem uses, and the figures converge. Four weeks before this announcement, the January forecasts are nearly £190 apart. The biggest difference between them is the date of the prices each one is built on.
| Forecaster | January 2027 forecast | Rise on £1,723 | Prices or update date |
|---|---|---|---|
| EDF | £2,165 | £442 (25.7%) | Reported 17 September 2026 |
| Cornwall Insight | £1,999.28 | £276 (16.0%) | Wholesale prices to 28 September 2026 |
| E.ON Next | £2,183 | £460 (26.7%) | Updated 26 October 2026 |
| Uswitch, average of British Gas, EDF and E.ON Next | About £2,188 | 27% | Updated 28 October 2026 |
Cornwall Insight's own forecast has already moved once. On wholesale prices to 25 August it was £1,872.15, and on prices to 28 September it was £1,999.28. If the latest figures are right, a rise of about £460 adds roughly £38 a month to a typical bill. We will add Ofgem's confirmed figure on 25 November and score each January forecast against it.
How we scored them. The gap is the difference in pounds between each forecaster's final published figure and Ofgem's confirmed cap, for a typical dual-fuel household paying by direct debit on Ofgem's current consumption values. Cornwall Insight also publishes figures on Ofgem's older consumption values, such as £2,107.43 for January. Those are left out so every row uses the same basis. The Uswitch figure is our arithmetic: 27% on £1,723.
What happens on 1 April 2027
The VAT cut on household electricity runs until 31 March 2027. Unless the government extends it, 5% VAT returns on electricity from 1 April 2027, on top of whatever the April cap brings. We explain the arithmetic on our electricity VAT cut page.
What to check before 1 January
- Whether you are on the capped standard variable tariff or a fix. Your annual statement or app says which.
- Your own usage. Swap 2,500 and 9,500 for the kWh totals on your annual statement and the same rates give your capped cost, which can be a long way from the headline.
- A meter reading on or just after 1 January, so the old and new rates are split correctly.
This page does not recommend any tariff, and it is not financial advice.
Questions people ask
When is the January 2027 price cap announced? Ofgem says it will announce the 1 January to 31 March 2027 cap on 25 November 2026, and may publish earlier if external factors require it.
How much will energy bills go up in January 2027? No one knows until Ofgem announces. The latest Cornwall Insight forecast, updated 14 October 2026, is £1,999.28 a year for a typical dual-fuel direct debit household, about 16% above the current £1,723.
Does the VAT cut still apply in January? Yes. Electricity carries no VAT from 1 October 2026 to 31 March 2027, so the January quarter is inside the cut. Gas keeps its 5% VAT.
Sources
- Ofgem, Changes to energy price cap between 1 October and 31 December 2026: current rates, VAT position and the 25 November 2026 announcement date. Read 25 October 2026.
- Cornwall Insight, 16% price cap rise forecast in January: published 30 September 2026. Read 25 October 2026.
- Cornwall Insight, Predictions and insights into the default tariff cap: updated 14 October 2026. Read 25 October 2026.
- Cornwall Insight, "Energy bills forecast to hit three-year high", 19 August 2026, and its default tariff cap predictions page, updated 14 October 2026.
- Uswitch, "Energy price cap October 2026: final predictions" (British Gas, EDF and E.ON Next figures as of 19 August 2026) and its January 2027 predictions page, updated 28 October 2026.
- E.ON Next price cap predictions page, read 30 October 2026.
- IBTimes UK, 27 September 2026, for EDF's £2,165 forecast as reported on 17 September 2026, and Cornwall Insight's £1,872.15 figure.
Changes to this page: 25 October 2026, published as a holding page with forecasts. It will be updated with Ofgem's confirmed rates on 25 November 2026.
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